Fantasy Sleepers Mlb 2018
2018 fantasy baseball rankings for H2H categories leagues 1 Related Manuel Margot: Margot always profiled as a leadoff option with stolen base potential, and then in his rookie season, he swatted 13 home runs in 126 games as well. Godley is one of the best starting pitcher sleepers in fantasy baseball in 2018 despite pitching half of his starts at Chase Field. The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs!With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors.
Sep 3, 2019; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez (24) hits a two run home run against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium.
Over the last three seasons, we've seen 75 starting pitchers drafted in the top 100 in ADP, an average of 25 per season. How many of those have finished as a top-100 overall player that season? 10 in each season, or just 40%. 22 of those 75 finished outside of the top-250, so you were only slightly more likely to get a top-100 player from your early-round pitcher as you were to get a player who wasn't worth rostering in most leagues.
Pitching is always a risky investment, in other words. Of course, there's a big difference between a pitcher drafted in the first two rounds and ones drafted in the eighth or ninth round, right? Well, last season, only two pitchers drafted in the top two rounds ended up finishing inside of the top-100 players, though six out of eight managed it in 2019 and 2018, including five top-36 finishes.
Which is to say, while pitching is a risky investment, that risk doesn't typically rise with the cost. The most expensive are the most expensive because they are the rare pitchers who have both elite production and a track record of health to back it up; outside of the first few rounds is when you start to see the guys who could be aces, but who have one or more question marks around them.
If we consider a top-100 overall finish to be a 'hit' for a starting pitcher, here's the hit rate among pitchers based on NFC ADP round over the last three seasons:
- Rounds 1-2: 8/14 (57.1%)
- Rounds 3-4: 7/23 (30.4%)
- Rounds 5-6: 12/22 (54.5%)
- Rounds 7-8: 3/17 (17.6%)
And if we consider a top-50 finish a 'smash', here's what it looks like:
- Rounds 1-2: 7/14 (50.0%)
- Rounds 3-4: 6/23 (26.1%)
- Rounds 5-6: 6/22 (27.3%)
- Rounds 7-8: 2/17 (11.7%)
At least over the last three seasons, you had a worse chance of hitting on a starting pitcher in Rounds 3 and 4 than you did in Rounds 5 and 6, and your chances of getting a good return on your investment was well below 50% for all pitchers outside of the top 24. The hit and smash rate for hitters is higher at every point in the draft, too.
So, does that mean you should buck the trend of pushing pitchers up draft boards and focus on hitting early? Well, not necessarily -- early pitchers are better investments than later pitchers, after all, and you still need good pitchers to contend in Fantasy. However, it's worth remembering that, at least over the last three seasons, SP6-12 in ADP have been about as likely to hit as SP13-20, so it might be smarter to still treat the second tier of starters with more skepticism. That's not to say you should skip the Walker Buehler (18.3 overall) through Luis Castillo (30.8) tier in ADP, but that you should include the Zac Gallen (40.5) through Carlos Carrasco (59.8) group in that same tier.
Fantasy Sleepers Mlb 2018 Postseason
And this may be more true for 2021 than any season ever, given how many more question marks we have at the position than usual. Pitching is always volatile, but now we're coming off a season where nobody threw more than 100 innings, including the post season, meaning there are significant workload concerns and sample-size issues across the board, in addition to the normal attrition rate at the position?
Was Trevor Bauer's breakout for real? Was Max Scherzer's inflated ERA a sign of the end of his run as a dominant starter? Was Ian Anderson's late-season run for real? What about Corbin Burnes? Those are all questions you'll have to have an answer for fairly early on in your drafts.
My ideal start would probably see me end up with one of the top three pitchers -- Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole -- and then focus on hitter for a few rounds, before dipping back into the pitching pool in Round 4-8. But, you might find pitchers going off the board so fast this season that you can't help but invest early. At least now you know the risk you're taking on.
25. Sonny Gray
26. Dinelson Lamet
27. Kyle Hendricks
28. Max Fried
29. Zack Wheeler
30. Jose Berrios
31. Chris Paddack
32. Framber Valdez
33. Ian Anderson
34. Dylan Bundy
35. Jesus Luzardo
36. Charlie Morton
37. Lance McCullers
38. Sixto Sanchez
39. Julio Urias
40. Patrick Corbin
41. Sandy Alcantara
42. Kevin Gausman
43. Joe Musgrove
44. Pablo Lopez
45. Mike Soroka
46. German Marquez
47. Frankie Montas
48. Marco Gonzales
1. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 101 IP, 28 BB, 135 K
The left-hander was suspiciously bypassed for the Padres' postseason push, with some chatter about him possibly underachieving at the alternate training site. But there are no challengers to his top spot among pitching prospects, and with his high leg kick, big extension and deep arsenal of four plus pitches, he's well equipped to dominate.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
2. Ian Anderson, Braves
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: 8-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 135 2/3 IP, 65 BB, 172 K
2020 majors: 3-2, 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32 1/3 IP, 14 BB, 42 K
The No. 3 pick back in 2016 had mostly gathered detractors since then, but it all clicked for him at the alternate training site, where he refined his changeup into a true put-away pitch on the level of Luis Castillo. From his one-hit debut against the Yankees to his three scoreless playoff outings, he showed unusual confidence in a three-pitch mix that included a loopy curveball.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
3. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 8-6, 2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 114 IP, 21 BB, 103 K
2020 majors: 3-2, 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 39 IP, 11 BB, 33 K
The questions about Sanchez's strikeout potential persist, but he actually had a better swinging-strike rate in his major-league stint than Anderson and dominated the other two legs of the FIP triangle with an elite strike percentage and sinking 98 mph fastball. Those two skills will take him far even if he never fully develops the third.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
4. Michael Kopech, White Sox
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: did not play -- injured
2018 minors: 7-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 126 1/3 IP, 60 BB, 170 K
2018 majors: 1-1, 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 14 1/3 IP, 2 BB, 15 K
The prospect hype for Kopech has gone a bit stale because of some uneven minor-league performances followed by Tommy John surgery followed by his decision to opt out last year. His fastball was as breathtaking as ever in spring training, though, and he made huge strides in the control area prior to the 2018 promotion that ended with him hurting his elbow.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
5. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: 5-4, 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 101 2/3 IP, 27 BB, 119 K
2020 majors: 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 18 IP, 13 BB, 16 K
Pearson was one of several high-profile pitching prospects who didn't quite pan out in 2020, his big fastball and wipeout slider failing to translate to whiffs as expected, but he ended on a high note, striking out five in two scoreless playoff innings following an IL stint. HIs careful handling to this point may hinder his progression some.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
6. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 6-8, 2.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122 2/3 IP, 37 BB, 179 K
2020 majors: 1-4, 5.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 32 IP, 11 BB, 37 K
Skubal's secondary pitches are a little underdeveloped since he was able to dominate using mostly his fastball in the minors, notably averaging 17.4 K/9 in nine Double-A starts. But he gained confidence in changeup during his major-league stint and ended it on a high note. The tools are there.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
7. Casey Mize, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 109 1/3 IP, 23 BB, 106 K
2020 majors: 0-3, 6.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 1/3 IP, 13 BB, 26 K
Mize's debut in 2020 was memorable only because of how unimpressive it was, and despite him being the first pick in 2018, many evaluators aren't extending the same grace to him that they are to, say, Nate Pearson. His pitches are impressive individually, but since they're all variations of a fastball (splitter, cutter, etc.), he may need to go back to the lab for more.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
8. Matt Manning, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: Double-A
2019 minors: 11-5, 2.56 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 133 2/3 IP, 38 BB, 148 K
The third of the Tigers' big pitching prospects is the most conventional and the favorite of some evaluators, but a forearm strain prevented him from debuting alongside the other two. Blessed with height and extension as the son of an NBA player, his high-90s fastball and downer curve have made him a consistent bat-misser in the minors.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
9. Logan Gilbert, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: low Class A, high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 135 IP, 33 BB, 165 K
Gilbert dominated across three levels in 2019, which might have positioned him to debut if he had a better team or a longer schedule to work with in 2020. His velocity has picked up since signing and plays up because of the extension on his 6-foot-6 frame, but it's his four pitches and command of each that make him largely foolproof.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
10. Spencer Howard, Phillies
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: Rookie, high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 3-1, 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 71 IP, 16 BB, 94 K
2020 majors: 1-2, 5.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 24 1/3 IP, 10 BB, 23 K
Fantasy Sleepers Mlb
Howard had barely played above A-ball prior to his debut, and while his velocity was down in 2020, his slider still played up nicely, presenting a path to success even if his development slows from here. He was shut down early with a stiff shoulder, too, so it's likely we weren't even seeing him operate at full capacity.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
So which 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.
© Provided by CBS SportsPreparations for Fantasy baseball drafts have already begun now that Spring Training is underway. Owners everywhere are evaluating the stats from last year's 60-game regular season and finalizing their 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings. Trading Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals freed up space in the Rockies' infield. Now, Brendan Rodgers and Garrett Hampson will battle for the starting spot at second base. Who should you trust for your 2021 Fantasy baseball picks?
Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. is near the top of the Fantasy baseball rankings 2021 after putting up head-turning numbers last season and signing a $340 million extension. Who are some of the other stars you should target, and who are the 2021 Fantasy baseball breakouts, busts, and sleepers you need to know? Before going on the clock, be sure to see the 2021 Fantasy baseball cheat sheets and rankings from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine's Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant.
The team at SportsLine was all over Bryant as a Fantasy bust from the start and he went on to slash .206/.291/.351 over 34 games, failing to rank among the top 45 third baseman despite being drafted in the fifth or sixth round on average. Their model had him listed much lower than expert consensus rankings, and anyone who listened to their advice avoided a major speedbump that could have derailed their season.
Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about the updated 2021 MLB schedule or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Marlins second baseman Jon Berti. The 31-year-old didn't make his Major League debut until 2018 with the Blue Jays, but he's carved out an important role with the Marlins thanks to a solid plate approach and terrific speed.
Berti has posted a .362 OBP over 376 plate appearances with Miami over the last two seasons and stolen 26 bases. Berti has 28 extra-base hits during that span as well, while his 15.4 percent walk rate in 2020 indicates he has a strong feel for the strike zone. That's why the model ranks him ahead of players Tommy La Stella and Keston Hiura, who are being drafted two rounds earlier on average in standard CBS Sports Fantasy baseball leagues.
Top 2021 Fantasy baseball breakouts
Fantasy Sleepers Mlb 2020
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is all over: Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning. The former first-round pick of the Nationals and top-100 prospect for the White Sox was the centerpiece of the return for Lance Lynn this offseason. He's now competing for a spot in Texas' starting rotation to break camp.
Dunning made his Major League last season after the White Sox ran into pitching depth issues and went 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 34 innings. Dunning locates five pitches well and generated whiff rates of 30 percent or higher with his slider (43.5), four-seam fastball (34.6) and changeup (30.8) a year ago. That a big reason why the model lists him ahead of fellow starting pitchers like Matthew Boyd and James Paxton, who are going at least five rounds earlier on average.
Top 2021 Fantasy baseball busts
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball busts the model is fading: Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez. The 33-year-old had been one of the best hitters in baseball, but he struggled during an extremely disappointing 2020 campaign. Martinez has seen his barrel rate fall the last three seasons, while his average exit velocity is down 3.5 mph from 93 at its peak in 2018 to 89.5 last season.
That's led to a hard-hit contact rate that has dropped from 52.0 percent to 41.6 in just two years. Even if he can start producing, he doesn't have the same upside in a Red Sox lineup that isn't as intimidating as it once was. That's why the model ranks him behind designated hitters like Miguel Cabrera and Willie Calhoun, who aren't even being drafted, while Martinez is going in the 12th round on average.
How to find proven 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine is also high on a right fielder with a 2021 Fantasy baseball ADP barely outside the top 100 who finishes ahead of studs like defending Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge. This pick could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2021 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kris Bryant's disappointing season, and find out.