How To Bet Over Under
The Over/Under is a set of odds in which you bet on whether the combined score will add up to more or less than the projected total number set by oddsmakers. If you believe there will be more. You are wagering on the combined points scored in the game. For example, if the over/under in the Green Bay-Chicago game is 42.5 and you bet on the over, you need at least 43 points scored in the game to win. Conversely, if you bet the under, and the score exceeds 42 points, you lose. Understanding the basics of betting totals is simple.
When betting point totals, the bettor isn’t betting on who wins the game but is concerned about how many combined points are scored between the competitors. Instead of rooting for a particular side, point total bettors cheer for both teams to either score a lot of points or score very few points, depending on where their wager lies.
The point totals bet comes into play when the bettor is not confident enough to select a certain team or player but has a solid understanding of how the game will play out stylistically. For example, a basketball team with a slow pace of play will drop the point total down. On the other side, a high-powered offense in football will drive up a higher point total.
Betting the over/under can be a thrilling way to watch a game even if the game is out of hand but the point total is still on the fence. It can also be infuriating when your under bet appeared to be a clear winner before double overtime cost you the win.
Over/under, also called totals bets, are a popular wager among elite sports gamblers with their analytical approach to sports gambling, knowing the way the game will flow and play out.
Whether you’re new to the sports betting industry or a seasoned veteran, let’s take some time to learn more about it betting point totals.
Identifying the total
In order to place your wager on the total, identifying where it’s located is the first step. Typically online sportsbooks list three major categories for traditional sports. Often, the numbers listed in order from left to right are point spread, then moneyline, followed by the point total.
The point total at the far right will feature a top and bottom half. The top will list the letter “O” or the word “OVER” before the number, which signifies the over, and the bottom half will show “U” or “UNDER” representing the under. Next to the point total number are the odds for the bet. Most totals bets have -110 odds.
Example:
- O49 (-110)
- U49 (-110)
The over/under number may fluctuate leading up to the game depending on where the majority of money and bets are coming in.
- How to bet the under: This is pretty self-explanatory. When you decide to bet the under, you’re thinking the teams will combine to score less than the given number put out by the oddsmakers. It can be difficult to watch a game as a casual fan when you make an under bet. Even though your brain has been programmed to cheer for points, you’re now rooting for strikeouts, missed shots, no touchdowns, and so on.
- How to bet the over: On the other side, if you think the game plays out at a much higher scoring pace than the sportsbook shows, bet on the over and root for everybody to play their best offensive games of the season and not back it up on the defensive end.
Halftime/quarter totals betting
This is more of an advanced wager, but online sportsbooks will sometimes offer the option to bet first and second halves or quarters, depending on the sport. If you notice a particular trend early or late in games, this could be a profitable way to go. If you’re watching your favorite team and notice over the course of the season that it takes a long time for the offense to get things going, putting some money on the first half under would make sense. Or, if the offense comes out firing in the first half before cooling off after halftime, bet the first half over.
Team point totals
This is also a non-typical point totals wager, but sometimes this is an option to go after. Individual team point totals focus on the number of points scored by a particular team instead of combining all competing sides. If you believe a team will score more than the listed point total number, take the over, and vice versa for the under.
How to bet the over/under with examples
Now that we have a full understanding of what betting over/under point totals are, let’s dive into a few of the scenarios that could arise when you’re looking to make your next over or under bet.
NFL example 1
Let’s reflect on Super Bowl LIII, which featured a matchup between two of the better offenses in the NFL with the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. This is among the highest point totals leading up to the game in Super Bowl history, and it made sense given what both teams had done to that point. The Rams finished the regular season second in scoring offense, while the Patriots placed fourth.
The point total for this game was set at 56.5 leading up to kickoff with a -110 listing for the over and under, meaning you would need to bet $110 to profit $100 on either side.
Despite the expectation of a shootout between two big-time offenses, the final score landed at 13-3. Quick math will tell you that’s a total of 16 points, falling well short of the number by 40.5 points. Hardly anybody could’ve expected such a low-scoring game, but that’s what makes sports and sports betting action fun. You never fully know what to expect.
Memorable highlights were limited, causing disappointment for fans and especially NFL bettors who took the over bet. Meanwhile, those who bet the under kicked back and enjoyed the Super Bowl, knowing they had a winning bet throughout much of the game.
NFL example 2
For our next example, let’s go back to the NFL for an NFC Divisional Round game between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints in January 2018.
It’s now known as the Minneapolis Miracle, but it also led to massive heartbreak or triumph for those who bet on the point total, which was set at 49.5 prior to the game.
With 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter, the Saints led 24-23, so everything looked bright for those who bet the under, while over bettors prayed for a miracle.
How To Bet Over Under In Nfl
Sometimes in sports betting, prayers are answered.
Stefon Diggs went 61 yards for a last-second touchdown to send the Vikings into the NFC Championship, leaving the Saints stunned with a 29-24 loss. Under bettors likely felt the same way, with the final combined point total ending up at 53.
How To Bet Over Under
NCAA basketball example
Let’s take this one back to 2009 to one of the most iconic games in Big East Tournament history. UConn basketball squared off against Syracuse in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden.
Since sports betting was much less of a topic in 2009 than it is today, it’s hard to find the point total for this game, but let’s set it at 150 with the standard -110 for the over and under in this example.
Those who had the under probably felt fairly confident in the final seconds of regulation with Syracuse ahead 71-69 with 10 seconds remaining. Combining the two scores adds up to 140, so how could this go wrong for the under bettors? Overtime.
This is a tricky part of point totals because they include the entire game, not just regulation. UConn’s Kemba Walker tied the game to send it into overtime. After six overtimes that featured 102 combined points, Syracuse and over bettors prevailed in a game that finished with a whopping 244 total points.
The over bettors were given a gift, while under bettors still curse the name Kemba Walker.
Depending on the particular situation, overtime in a totals bet can be a sports bettor’s best friend, but it can also be part of a sports gambler’s nightmare.
MLB example
In this completely made-up example, let’s say the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are matched up in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series to advance to the World Series.
The over/under run total is set at 8 with -110 juice set at both sides. Like the previous examples, this means you’d have to bet $110 to earn $100 with a winner.
In this fantasy, we’re in the bottom of the ninth with the game tied 3-3 and Boston slugger Xander Bogaerts at the plate. He steps up and rips a two-run homer to give the Red Sox the 5-3 victory, as the final runs total rests at 8.
Since the over/under run total was set at 8 and the final result matched the number, this is called a push. All sides of the point total bet get their money back as if nothing happened.
Sportsbooks try to avoid the push scenario when you’re betting on baseball, which is a reason many point totals and spreads list a 0.5 after the number.
How to Bet Guides
Key takeaways on totals
Let’s take a look back at the main points and what we learned about betting point totals.
- Traditional totals bets consist of combining points between teams involved.
- Consider the different styles of play when analyzing point totals.
- Bet the under when you think less points will be scored than projected by oddsmakers.
- Bet the over when you think more points will be scored than projected by oddsmakers.
- As with all wagers, luck can play a big role in the winners and losers.
Sometimes abbreviated as O/U, this type of bet is one in which a sportsbook predicts statistics in a given event, most often the total number of points or goals scored by a combination of both teams and then it us up to us to bet on whether we think the total will be higher or lower than that figure.
How to Win At Over / Under Betting
Firstly find the average numbers associated with your chosen event, calculate the probabilities and finally decide what odds are worth betting on (details below).
Betting On Totals – Over / Under
Basically we are always betting here on the total number of goals or points to be scored in a specific event. All we have here are two choices; bet over or bet under.
Basketball, football and lots of other sports are popular with over/under bettors but here we’ll use a soccer example. Typically the sportsbook will set the total at 2.5 goals in the game and because of the half point there is no draw possible.
We have a 50% chance of getting this right. If you bet over and there are 3 or more goals scored you win, if you bet under and there are 2 goals or fewer scored then again you win. Example:
Newcastle United v Chelsea
Under 2.5 Goals = 10/11
Over 2.5 Goals = 10/11
Say you put $100 on ‘under’ and the game finished 1-0, you would return $190.91 and so you would be in profit. If the game had finished 2-1 or anything above that then you lose. This gives us a very simple choice to make, usually based on whether we feel the two teams involved have solid a defense or whether all-out attack is the name of the game.
What Happens If The Result Is Neither Over or Under?
The draw is taken out of the equation with this bet in some cases, so your stake will be returned. Naturally there are plenty of other options if you would like to slightly hedge your bets, such as Asian Handicaps and the like, but in this case it’s a simple refund.
On the above example we have half points so there will always be a winner, you simply have to be over or under. But with higher scoring points games such as basketball, you may see whole points on over such as over / under 200 points and in this case the bet could finish dead-on, then it’s the refund.
When Is Over / Under Betting Best To Use?
Firstly this is a good bet to play when you are unsure of who you think will win the game. You do not want to throw your money behind a certain team because you think the game will be too close to call, however the result doesn’t matter with over / under, as long as you guess right on the points or goals total.
Soccer games featuring very attacking teams or those with bad defenses are good to bet as we can be pretty confident about the ‘over’ result, though sometimes the odds will reflect this.
Step By Step Guide To Over and Under Betting
There are some pretty simple guidelines available when thinking about taking an over / under bet and following these can give us a very fair chance of getting things right, even if we don’t consider calling ourselves expert on a certain sport:
Step 1 – Finding the Average Number of Goals per Game / League / Team
Some teams or even some individual coaches are known for conservative tactics which can keep the average goals scored per game to a minimum, but sometimes an entire league is known to be high scoring or low scoring so check out some stats on industry standard websites for that. League tables for every sport are widely available on the net.
Things change quickly too so make sure you are not using historical data going back too far. The average points scored in an NBA game in recent years may not match up to how things were 10 years ago, likewise within soccer a few coaching changes and some new players into a league can drastically change the stats over the course of a season or two.
Step 2 – Calculate Probabilities
Calculations should be made by keeping emotions out of things. To look too deeply into a current team’s set-up could be dangerous as on any given day they may over or under perform which could in turn lead to a greater or less number of points scored than we thought.
Take a look at the recent results of the team in question and take a simple average of the number of points or goals scored in their games. This gives you a good base. Do the same for the opposition and a pattern may emerge; though remember the sportsbook will have done just the same thing so you are looking to have an edge.
Say a soccer team has been averaging 3.08 goals per game of late and the bookmakers are sweet on the ‘over’, leaving the ‘under’ at good odds. Then you hear that their leading goal scorer is injured and may not make the game, you can make a fair assumption that on the balance of probabilities they are now carrying less of a goal threat and so ‘under’ becomes much more of a possibility.
Step 3 – Decide and Determine What Odds Are Worth Betting On
Perhaps having worked on the above example, you feel there may not be as many goals in the soccer game you are betting on than the sportsbook believes. Imagine ‘over 2.5 goals ‘is 17/20 and ‘under’ is 19/20. Given the vig, this essentially means the bookmakers believe there is a 51% chance of over and 49% chance of under.
The fact that your chosen team barely averages over 3 goals per game anyway and they are now missing their best player, it would seem that the ‘under’ should be up above 50% probability and so in this case we feel like we are getting good value for money, so we take the bet.
Doing even a little calculation like this and not simply leaving it to chance gives us a fair opportunity to make some profit out of over / under betting over the course of a season.