How To Calculate Odds In Soccer Betting
- How To Calculate Underdog Betting Odds Payout
- How To Calculate Odds When Betting
- How To Calculate Odds Payout
When betting on a football match you have to accept that you are going to have a run of losing bets. You are going to have to come to terms with the fact that you are not going to win every weekend and you should simply be setting yourself the goal of attaining a steady long-term profit.
Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this. How to calculate odds of winning a bet is usually down to three things; the number of possible outcomes, the likelihood of an event occurring and the amount of money (or. The calculator to the left can be used to remove vig from 3-way markets such as 1X2 used in football (soccer) and sometimes hockey. In other words it can be used to handicap the market price for sports where there is the option to bet on Home, Visitor, or Draw. This calculator supports both European decimal odds and American moneyline odds. Fair odds would be 2.00 for both and if you bet 10$ on over and the same on under, you will get 20$ back, no matter what happens. In reality, the prices would probably be about 1.93 and the difference is the bookmaker’s margin. The percentage varies in each operator and depends on lots of factors.
Knowing that you are going to have your fair share of losers, the only way you are going to achieve this profit is by backing teams whose odds are larger than the actual chance of the team you are betting on winning.
| 'Before you even consider having a bet your selection must offer value. To achieve this it helps greatly if you can compile and calculate your own odds.' |
Below we will be explaining a simple method that you can use to price up a match yourself. It should be remembered that pricing up a match is all down to individual preference. Some people put more emphasis on the form of the last six games than they do on the previous 38 matches.
Pricing up a football match takes a little time to learn. With each match you need to decide how far you’re going to go back, which games (or kinds of games) you think might deserve extra or less emphasis and so on. However, with continued practice you will find that putting in a couple of hours work a week can pay off handsomely.
How to compile your own odds
Let’s look at an easy straightforward example by looking at this weekend’s match between Fulham and Aston Villa. In this instance we will be looking at Fulham’s previous 15 home games and Aston Villas previous 15 away games
Fulham’s last 15 home match form
Won 7 Drawn 5 Lost 3
Aston Villa’s last 15 away match form
Won 3 Drawn 5 Lost 7
I would then suggest the following equation;
To get Fulham’s home price:
You would take Fulham’s seven home wins and add them to Aston Villa’s seven away losses = 14
To get the Draw price:
You would take Fulham’s fie home draws and add them to Aston Villa’s five away draws = 10
To get Aston Villa’s away price:
We would take Fulham’s three home losses and add them to Aston Villa’s three away wins = Six
So then we are left with the following;
Fulham 14
Draw 10
Aston Villa 6
To get the percentage chance we divide each team’s individual score by the 30 matches.
To get Fulham’s percentage you divide 14 by 30 = 46.66%.
To get the Draw percentage you divide 10 by 30 = 33.33%.
To get Aston Villa’s percentage you divide 6 by 30 = 20.00%.
Then to get the odds you simply divide 100 by the percentage figure. So in this case we have;
Fulham 100/46.66 = 2.14Research Do your homework on the teams just like a manger would. |
Aston Villa 100/20.00 = 5.00
We have now priced up our match and we have;
• Fulham at 2.14
• Draw at 3.03
• Aston Villa at 5.00
If we then take a look at the odds from a well known bookmaker we see they have priced the game up as follows;
Match Odds: Fulham 2.20 Draw 3.30 Aston Villa 3.40
Fulham are 2.20 (45.45%) and we believe they should be 2.14 (46.72%)
We may now consider betting on them as we believe the Cottagers have more chance of beating the Villains than the bookmakers do with a +1.27% difference between us.
Aston Villa are priced at 3.40 (29.41%) and we have them as a 5.00 (20.00%) chance
We would probably not look to back Aston Villa as we think they stand -9.41% less chance of winning than the bookmakers have them.
The draw is priced at 3.30 (30.30%) and we believe it only offers a 3.00 (33.33%) chance
We may consider the draw as we believe there is +3.03% more chance of this happening.
Now the question here is how much value do we require? Personally, I would not bet on a team unless we find at least 5% value and would not bet on the draw unless there is at least 1% value
Other methods to consider
Now the above is only one method of pricing up a match.
The following is a list of other suggestions you could employ. You may also wish to mix and match.
* For long term you can look at the last 20 home and away matches for each team.
* Short term you may look at the last 10 home and away matches for each team
* How a team has played against similar opposition.
How To Calculate Underdog Betting Odds Payout
* Check the prices available from the corresponding fixture last season.
You can then assess if either of the teams have improved or deteriorated since the last time they met and price up the match from there. The main thing is to find a method that suits you and which you have complete confidence in and unfortunately that will take some time to master.
Word of warning
If you price up a match and you find that you are receiving excellent value and it seems too good to be true then you need to check the prices and the team news. The manager may be resting players or important stars may be missing though injury.
Or, you could have made a simple mistake in your calculations. Always double-check your figures, facts and team news before placing what you consider to be a value bet.
Pete Nordsted is the co-author of the Premier Football Betting Handbook 2011-12 which has just been released. The follow up to last year's successful book offers a comprehensive guide of the best markets for this season's forthcoming Premier League season and how to profit from them.
The book can be ordered by going to the following link at Harriman House or is available in the Kindle Store at Amazon. For more about his work see Premier Betting.
Competition
We have five copies of the Pete Nordsted's Premier Football Betting Handbook 2011-12 to give away in eBook format. To be in with a chance email your name and address to betting@goal.com with book competition in the subject box.
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Welcome to the Sports Betting Odds section of The Sports Geek. If you are new to sports betting and don’t understand how to read betting odds (+150, -110, +2200, etc) we will lay it all out for you and help you learn how the betting odds work.
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Sports Betting Odds Explained
Many people don’t know how to read or calculate sports betting odds, so below we have done our best on explaining how betting odds work. The most common type of sports betting odds used in North America are the American style odds which we explain below.
American Style Sports Betting Odds
Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called “American Odds”. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams:
American Odds
- Matchup Odds
- New England Patriots +120
- Pittsburgh Steelers -140
The number shown in the bracket represents the odds. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign.
The sign in front of the number indicates whether placing a wager on that outcome will pay out more money then you have wagered or less money then you have wagered. If the odd is negative (-) it means that outcome is more likely to happen and placing a bet on that outcome would payout less than the amount you wagered, while a positive (+) odd shows that the outcome is less likely to happen and it would pay out more than the amount you wagered.
The next step is figuring out exactly how much the bet pays out, which is where the numbers in the odds come into play.
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -140 in our example above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So using the -140, this would show us that you would need to bet $140 in order to win $100 in profits. You can easily substitute the $100 bet for a $10 bet by moving the decimal place over one spot, showing us that you would need to wager $14 in order to win $10 in profits.
Examples:
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +120 in our example above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +120 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on that outcome would pay out $120 in profits. Again this can easily be converted into smaller or larger size bets. A $10 bet on +120 odds would pay out $12 in profits.
Examples:
Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site.
In this example you can see Los Angeles is listed at +130 ($100 bet pays $130 plus of course your original wager back) and New England is listed at -150 ($150 bet pays $100).
The great thing about betting online is that the online sportsbooks will do the calculations for you before you place your bet. You can click on the outcome or team you would like to bet on, and then input the amount you wish to wager and it will show you your potential pay out before you confirm your bet.
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Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds
Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this:
How To Calculate Odds When Betting
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on the USA at 2.40 you would simply need to multiply your $10 wager by the 2.40 odds (10 x 2.40) to find out that the payout is $24. It is important to realize that with decimal style odds it includes the amount you wagered, so to find out profits you would need to subtract your wager ($24 – $10) to find out your potential payout is $14 in profits.
How To Calculate Odds Payout
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on Brazil you would again just multiply $10 x 1.55 to find out that you would win $15.50 total or $5.50 in profits.
Decimal style betting odds are very simple to understand, but you won’t see them displayed in many North American sportsbooks. With that said, most online betting sites will allow you to chose the style of betting odds you want displayed, with American odds set as the default.