Nfl Proposition Bets
It was a record-setting NFL season on the scoreboard as games averaged an all-time high 49.6 combined points with 5.76 touchdowns per contest — a high-water mark in the Super Bowl era. Will Sunday’s 2021 Super Bowl follow suit? Super Bowl 55 is lined as such with the third-highest Over/Under (56.5 points) in Big Game history.
Still, a hefty O/U far from guarantees a high-scoring shootout as the Over has cashed only four times in the previous 12 Super Bowls with 50-point-plus totals, including only once in the seven most recent championship games.
NFL proposition bets are a great way to add excitement to a game beyond the importance of the straight outcome. We have numerous NFL proposition bets available on the website. You may find them under the individual sports (if applicable) or in our Specials section. A prop bet or “proposition” bet is any wager that is not directly related to the final score of a game. For the NFL, these “side bets” can cover anything from game and season statistics, team and player performance, in-game occurrences, and much more. NFL Player Prop Bets. NFL Player Prop Bets are centered around a player’s performance in a particular game. The most commonly wagered NFL Player Prop Bets are passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, or a combination of the two for all-purpose yards. Near enough all online sportsbooks offering odds on football will also offer odds on Player Touchdowns, be it First, Last, or anytime. NFL prop betting is favored by a lot of sports bettors. It gives them an opportunity to place bets without worrying about a game’s outcome. While sports betting is a business for many people, generating the bulk of their income, proposition bets are entirely recreational. They’re fun wagers that rely heavily on luck. Don’t be fooled, though. The qualifying bets to claim the Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher before triggering free bets. There are no wagering requirements for any winnings.
Those trends in mind, here are some Super Bowl LV total TD prop bet picks and predictions.
2021 Super Bowl total touchdown prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
7.5 total touchdowns: Over: +170, Under: -225
Computing the implied probabilities here, there’s a 37.04% chance of the Chiefs and Buccaneers scoring 8 or more combined TDs and a 69.23% of 7 or fewer 6-point scores.
Breaking down the TD totals in each team’s games this season — 19 for the Bucs and 18 for the Chiefs — and also the 30 most recent Super Bowls, we find 27 of the 37 (73%) Tampa Bay and Kansas City contests in 2020-21 featured 7 or fewer combined TDs and 24 of the previous 30 (80%) Super Bowls did as well, including 10 of the 12 (83.3%) with totals above 50 points.
Those 2020 games include, of course, the Chiefs’ 27-24 Week 12 win in Tampa which featured six combined TDs (three apiece).
It all points us toward the under 7.5 here as we recommend laying the -225.
Nfl Prop Bets Week 1
Also see:
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, picks and predictionBet Slippin’ PodcastSuper Bowl Prop BetsEach team to score 2 or more touchdowns: Yes: -300, No: +225
Yes has an implied probability of 75% while No is 30.77%.
That’s a hefty slant toward Yes, but our numbers say there’s still some value there.
Prop Bets Tonight Nfl
In the 37 games this season for our 2021 Super Bowl combatants, each team found its way into the end zone at least twice in 28 contests (75.7%). In the 30 most recent Super Bowls, 24 (80%) have seen at least two TDs apiece from the two teams, including 10 of the 12 (83.3%) high-total contests.
That makes Yes a strong play, even at -300.
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Exact total touchdowns: 5 (+425), 6 (+400), 7 (+425); 8 (+600)
These are the four likeliest totals Sunday, with 6 touchdowns given the highest implied probability (20%) and 8 TDs (14.29%) the least. Five and 7 are even with a 19.05% implied probability.
In our review of the 2020 games and last 30 Super Bowl totals, though, 7 TDs emerged as the most frequent sum in both categories at 21.6 and 20%, respectively.
So, 7 touchdowns being scored Sunday is the recommended play if you’re looking for a nice plus-money payout (+425) from a total touchdown prop.
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The Denver Broncos (5-8) kick off a Saturday NFL doubleheader by hosting the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (10-3). Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Below, we highlight five player/team prop bet predictions for the Broncos in Week 15.
Also see:Bills at Broncos odds, picks and prediction
Denver Broncos Week 15 prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Broncos OVER 0.5 points in the 1st quarter (-210)
Even though the Broncos are averaging only 3.4 first-quarter points per game (29th in the league) and the Bills are permitting only 3.3 (second-fewest), it’s hard to pass on this prop.
Not counting the Week 12 quarterback-less fiasco when Denver managed only a season-low three points all game, the Broncos have been shut out only three times in the first quarter of their other 12 contests.
Bank on at least a field goal in the first quarter Saturday.
First half game total UNDER 24.5 points (-118)
In spite of our first prop recommendation, we foresee something far less than a shootout in the opening 30 minutes.
The Broncos are averaging the second-fewest first-half points in the league (8.2) while the Bills allow the fewest on average (9.1).
Putting those two together puts the Broncos at 8.7, and doing the same for the Bills’ first-half offensive (14.8 PPG) and the Broncos’ defensive (13.4) averages puts Buffalo at 14.1.
Combined, that’s a total of 22.8 points, and with 1.7 points of leeway on the projected total of 24.5, why not take a shot at the first half Under?
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RB Melvin Gordon OVER 12.5 rushing attempts (-118)
The Broncos seemed to have settled on a more-rushing, less-passing offensive formula over the last four games as they’ve averaged 32.3 rushing attempts per contest over that span. By comparison, Denver averaged an even 25 rushes per game over its first nine contests.
As the Broncos’ lead back, Gordon has accounted for 45.8% of the team’s rushing attempt on the season. He has averaged 13.8 carries per contest during the just-mentioned four-game span of rushing uptick, and he’s looked the best he has all season as well, averaging 78.5 rushing yards per outing and 5.71 yards per carry.
With Denver surely desiring to keep Bills QB Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills’ attack (ninth with 27.6 points per game) on the sideline, look for the Broncos to rely heavily on the surging Gordon Saturday.
TE Noah Fant OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-112)
Fant missed Sunday’s 32-27 win over the Carolina Panthers with a non-COVID-19 illness, and with it, he likely missed a chance to be a featured pass-catcher.
Along with 30 rushing attempts in the win, the Broncos featured a noticeably condensed passing game with 14 of QB Drew Lock‘s 26 targets going to tight ends and running backs. Reserve TEs Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for 9 targets, 8 receptions (4 apiece) and 73 yards.
In 11 games this season, Fant has had at least 38 receiving yards eight times.
Then there’s the Buffalo defense, which is allowing an average of 64.1 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends — the second-highest mark in the league.
All that considered, gotta roll with the Over for Fant.
Worth a (long) shot: Fant to score a TD (+240) and/or score Broncos’ first TD (+800)
Fant hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2 and is stuck on two TDs for the season.
Given the expected usage just detailed above, we’ll take a shot on Fant ending that drought Saturday with a couple of different TD props to choose from.
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Nfl Prop Bets
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